Ignore All the Financial Planning Rules

I always say that it’s about breaking the rules. But the secret of breaking rules in a way that works is understanding what the rules are in the first place.

-Rick Wakeman

General rules of thumb for
financial planning rarely work.

Here are some with my critiques:

“Stocks minus your age should equal 100” – Bad rule – your investment allocation depends on your risk tolerance, the rate of return required to achieve your goals, when you add to investments from annual savings or stock option exercises and when you remove investments to fund lifestyle needs.

“Life insurance must equal six times compensation” – Bad rule – your spouse or partner would use all of your resources, including insurance, to fund lifestyle needs after you die.  If you review this and determine a short-fall, that is the amount to be funded by insurance.  It could be more or less than the six-fold multiple but ensures that your survivors have adequate resources to be protected.

“Save 10% of income annually” – Decent rule – however, some may need to save even more and others may have no savings need.  As with life insurance, the question is whether the return from assets plus annual savings over your life expectancy will fund your lifestyle.

“You only need 70% of income in retirement” – Bad rule – in fact, many people spend more in the first years of retirement as they travel more while spending far less in their 70’s and 80’s as their needs become fewer.  This can be further complicated by estate planning goals of gifting to children or charities.

“Hold six months after-tax income for a rainy day” – Decent rule – however, this depends on liquidity, borrowing ability (e.g., home equity line) and cash flow.  If annual income permits substantial savings, such that you could pay for a new roof without affecting lifestyle, your “rainy day” reserve can be much less.

“Monthly payments on debt should not exceed 20% of income” – Decent rule – in fact, the rule is somewhat irrelevant in that most lenders apply rules to limit mortgage payments plus home insurance and property taxes to a percentage of income.  As with the savings rule, your level of debt may be more or less depending on assets available, risk tolerance and lifestyle costs.

“Do not refinance until rates drop 2%”– Bad rule – the test is simple: how soon will the cost of refinancing be recouped by lower payments?  With no points/no closing cost loans, this can be a year or less.  Buying down a rate by paying points will make sense if the pay-off is in 12 to 24 months and if you plan to stay in the residence for seven years or more.

“Delete collision coverage on a car more than 7 years old” – Decent rule – as with the “rainy day” reserve, this depends on cash flow and other resources.  It also depends on whether the car is your “antique.”

“Do not spend more than 7% of income on long-term care insurance”– Uncertain rule – some people may have sufficient assets to self-insure.  Some people will not risk nursing care due to bad family health history; they will want to pay for full insurance.

Are you going to break the rules?

While breaking rules may or may not work for you, creating and sticking to a financial plan will! (The future you will be glad you did!)

Online retirement calculators can give very different results!

Results from online different financial calculators do not match.  Why do the results differ?  Usually, it is because different assumptions were used.  That is, the calculators control the variables in different ways.

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Performing complete and accurate calculations well is difficult, and thus designing a web-based calculator can be expensive.  The variables a retirement calculator must address include rate of inflation, rate of return on investment, life expectancy, how much of current salary you need to support yourself at retirement, and social security benefits.

Some calculators offer Monte Carlo simulations to help you predict your retirement funding.   On this, my vote is to ignore the Monte Carlo simulation for the same reason many websites will tell you not to count on past returns as to predict your future investment results.

Some calculators allow you to alter their assumptions.  However, none of them is able to accommodate either decreasing spending in later years, which is typical of most people during retirement, or the cost burden of major health problems.  Any attempt to address these issues would be quite costly.

Others take an easy out by limiting variables, e.g., keeping your contributions flat.  This facile solution provides little insight into what you retirement savings will actually look like because it ignores your ability to save more as your income increases.  Also, by assuming flat contributions, your need to act will look more urgent due to the big shortfall in saving to meet your retirement goal.

The company using this assumption may hope you contact them to help you solve the retirement problem that their formula, in part, has created.  A calculator that assumes annually increasing savings makes more sense.

In the end, using any of these calculators gives you a sense of where you stand vis a vis your retirement goal.  If you are far off, it gives you impetus to act so you get on track; and if you are on track, then you it gives you a sense of security.  For me, the most important result from using any calculator should be assessing and sticking to a good strategy for saving and investing with a long-term perspective.

Here are links to the some popular retirement calculators, which may come up in a web search:

AARP

CNN

Fidelity

Schwab

Vanguard

If you don’t find what you want, let me know!

What is Retirement?

I actually think the whole concept of retirement is a bit stupid, so yes, I do want to do something else. There is this strange thing that just because chronologically on a Friday night you have reached a certain age… with all that experience, how can it be that on a Monday morning, you are useless?

-Stuart Rose

Does “retirement” mean no more paycheck and collecting social security?

What if you don’t want to wait until you are in your 65 to “retire”?

Financial Independence

When you have enough money to retire, whether you choose to stop working or not, you are financially independent. So, “saving and investing for retirement” typically means taking some of what you earn to invest so that you have more funds in the future from which you can withdraw to pay for lifestyle expenses, without relying on anyone else for support.

Use of Insurance

Retirement is different from being disabled, where you cannot work, for which you may buy disability insurance, and from early death, for which you can buy life insurance to help take care of your family.